Returns a data frame describing the Charter for Budget Responsibility
fiscal rules currently in force, as encoded in the package at the time
of release. Numerical headroom against each rule is not shipped as a
constant because it is updated at every fiscal event and would go stale
within months; users should derive headroom from the current EFO output
of get_efo_fiscal(), or consult the OBR's EFO press release for the
relevant vintage.
Value
A data frame with columns:
- rule
Short rule code:
"stability","investment","welfare_cap".- metric
The metric the rule binds on.
- target_description
Plain-English target.
- target_year_rule
How the target year is set under the Charter.
- direction_of_pass
Sign convention for headroom.
- source_charter
Charter version that defines the rule.
- source_act
Act of Parliament backing the rule.
Details
The current Charter (Autumn 2024, with an Autumn 2025 update) sets three numerical rules:
Stability rule: current budget in balance or surplus by the target year. The target year is the 5th forecast year and rolls to the 3rd forecast year from 2026-27 onwards.
Investment rule: Public Sector Net Financial Liabilities (PSNFL) as a share of GDP falling year-on-year by the target year.
Welfare cap: AME-capped welfare spending below the statutory cap level by the target year.
The Budget Responsibility Act 2024 also adds a non-numerical fiscal lock requiring an OBR forecast for any fiscally significant measure.
Examples
obr_fiscal_rules()
#> rule
#> 1 stability
#> 2 investment
#> 3 welfare_cap
#> metric
#> 1 Current budget balance, % of GDP
#> 2 Public Sector Net Financial Liabilities (PSNFL), % of GDP, year-on-year change
#> 3 AME-capped welfare spending, GBP bn (cash)
#> target_description
#> 1 Current budget in balance or surplus by the target year
#> 2 PSNFL as a share of GDP falling year-on-year by the target year
#> 3 AME-capped welfare spending below the cap level by the target year
#> target_year_rule
#> 1 5th forecast year (rolls to 3rd from 2026-27 onwards)
#> 2 5th forecast year (rolls to 3rd from 2026-27 onwards)
#> 3 Set in nominal terms for a specific fiscal year by the Treasury
#> direction_of_pass
#> 1 current budget surplus larger -> pass
#> 2 PSNFL/GDP falling more steeply -> pass
#> 3 AME-capped spending further below cap -> pass
#> source_charter
#> 1 Charter for Budget Responsibility, Autumn 2024 (updated Autumn 2025)
#> 2 Charter for Budget Responsibility, Autumn 2024 (updated Autumn 2025)
#> 3 Charter for Budget Responsibility, Autumn 2024 (updated Autumn 2025)
#> source_act
#> 1 Budget Responsibility Act 2024 (fiscal lock)
#> 2 Budget Responsibility Act 2024 (fiscal lock)
#> 3 Budget Responsibility Act 2024 (fiscal lock)