Comparing Theoretical and Observed AI Exposure: Evidence from the Anthropic Economic Index for the United Kingdom
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Abstract
Joins the Anthropic Economic Index’s UK Claude usage shares with UK employment by occupation, and compares the resulting employment-weighted exposure index against Felten, Raj, and Seamans (2021). Observed and theoretical exposure correlate at a Spearman rho of 0.43 across 15 matched major groups, a moderately positive point estimate whose bootstrap confidence interval does not exclude zero. Individual divergences are large even where the headline correlation is inconclusive: Legal occupations rank first on the theoretical measure but ninth by observed usage.
Recommended citation: Coverdale, C. (2026). Comparing Theoretical and Observed AI Exposure: Evidence from the Anthropic Economic Index for the United Kingdom. Working paper.
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