Get OBR forecast revisions

Downloads (and caches) the OBR Forecast Revisions Database, which decomposes each EFO-to-EFO revision in the headline Public Sector Net Borrowing forecast into three top-level components - policy, classifications and one-offs, and underlying (economic determinants) - with sub-components for each.

Usage

get_forecast_revisions(unit = c("gbp_bn", "pct_gdp"), refresh = FALSE)

Arguments

unit

Character. Either "gbp_bn" (GBP billion, the default) or "pct_gdp" (per cent of GDP).

refresh

Logical. If TRUE, re-download even if a cached copy exists. Defaults to FALSE.

Value

An obr_tbl with columns:

forecast_date

Forecast vintage, e.g. "November 2024" (character).

component

Revision component. Top-level rows are "Total", "Policy", "Classifications and one-offs", and "Underlying". Sub-components carry the OBR's "of which: ..." labels (character).

fiscal_year

Fiscal year being revised, e.g. "2024-25" (character).

value

Revision value, in GBP billion or per cent of GDP per unit (numeric). A positive value indicates an upward revision to PSNB.

Details

This is the dataset behind the "what changed?" attribution charts in OBR fiscal commentary and IFS Green Budget chapters.

See also

Other forecasts: get_forecasts(), list_forecast_series(), obr_actual_vs_forecast(), obr_compare_vintages(), obr_forecast_panel()

Examples

# \donttest{
op <- options(obr.cache_dir = tempdir())
rev <- get_forecast_revisions()
#> ℹ Downloading forecast_revisions.xlsx from OBR...
#> ✔ Saved to cache.
# Top-level revisions only
rev[rev$component %in% c("Total", "Policy",
                         "Classifications and one-offs", "Underlying"), ]
#> # obr_tbl: 564 rows x 4 cols
#> # Source:       OBR Forecast Revisions Database
#> # URL:          https://obr.uk/download/forecast-revisions-database-march-2025/
#> # Retrieved:    2026-05-07 21:08:40 UTC
#> # File MD5:     88649f739c50
#> # Package:      obr 0.5.0
#> # Note:         Decomposition of PSNB forecast revisions in GBP billion.
#> 
#>    forecast_date component fiscal_year value
#> 1  November 2010     Total     2010-11  -0.6
#> 2  November 2010     Total     2011-12   1.8
#> 3  November 2010     Total     2012-13   1.9
#> 4  November 2010     Total     2013-14   0.1
#> 5  November 2010     Total     2014-15  -2.4
#> 6  November 2010     Total     2015-16  -2.2
#> 7  November 2010    Policy     2010-11   0.0
#> 8  November 2010    Policy     2011-12   0.8
#> 9  November 2010    Policy     2012-13   0.0
#> 10 November 2010    Policy     2013-14  -1.7
#> # ... with 554 more rows
options(op)
# }