Skip to contents

Build a wide real-time panel of OBR forecasts

Source: R/forecast_panel.R
obr_forecast_panel.Rd

Takes the long-format Historical Forecasts Database output of get_forecasts() and pivots it to a wide panel with one row per forecast vintage (e.g. "March 2024") and one column per fiscal year being forecast (e.g. "2024-25"). The first column is the forecast vintage; remaining columns are numeric forecast values.

Usage

obr_forecast_panel(
  series = "PSNB",
  refresh = FALSE,
  order_chronologically = TRUE
)

Arguments

series

Character. Series to return; see list_forecast_series(). Defaults to "PSNB".

refresh

Logical. If TRUE, re-download the underlying database.

order_chronologically

Logical. If TRUE (the default), rows are ordered from earliest to latest forecast vintage. If FALSE, rows appear in the order returned by get_forecasts().

Value

An obr_tbl whose first column (forecast_date) is character and whose remaining columns are numeric forecast values, one per fiscal year. Provenance is inherited from the underlying call to get_forecasts() and a notes field describes the panel.

Details

This format mirrors how the OBR's own Historical Forecasts Database is laid out and how forecast-error studies (e.g. the OBR's own Forecast Evaluation Report) decompose performance: each row is one forecast published at a fiscal event, each column is the target year being forecast, and the diagonal-like structure lets you read the h-step ahead forecast for any vintage.

See also

Other forecasts: get_forecast_revisions(), get_forecasts(), list_forecast_series(), obr_actual_vs_forecast(), obr_compare_vintages()

Examples

# \donttest{
op <- options(obr.cache_dir = tempdir())
panel <- obr_forecast_panel("PSNB")
#> Warning: Could not resolve a current Historical Forecasts Database URL from 16
#> candidates.
#> ℹ Falling back to
#>   <https://obr.uk/download/historical-official-forecasts-database-march-2025/>.
#> ! Returned data may be older than expected. Run with internet access, or pin a
#>   vintage explicitly when that feature ships.
#> ℹ Loading from cache. Use `refresh = TRUE` to re-download.
#> Warning: multiple rows match for period=1996-97: first taken
#> Warning: multiple rows match for period=1997-98: first taken
# PSNB forecast for 2024-25 across every vintage
panel[, c("forecast_date", "2024-25")]
#> # obr_tbl: 104 rows x 2 cols
#> # Source:       OBR Historical Official Forecasts Database, March 2025
#> # URL:          https://obr.uk/download/historical-official-forecasts-database-march-2025/
#> # Retrieved:    2026-05-07 21:08:44 UTC
#> # File MD5:     4312a0cf5075
#> # Package:      obr 0.5.0
#> # Note:         Wide real-time panel for PSNB: rows = forecast vintage, columns = fiscal year.
#> 
#>    forecast_date 2024-25
#> 1     April 1970      NA
#> 2     March 1971      NA
#> 3     March 1972      NA
#> 4     March 1973      NA
#> 5     March 1974      NA
#> 6     April 1975      NA
#> 7     April 1976      NA
#> 8   January 1977      NA
#> 9     March 1977      NA
#> 10 November 1977      NA
#> # ... with 94 more rows
options(op)
# }