Downloads (and caches) the OBR Historical Official Forecasts Database and returns a tidy long-format data frame showing every forecast the OBR has ever published for a given series. Each row is one forecast for one fiscal year, made at one fiscal event.
Arguments
- series
Character. The series to return. Use
list_forecast_series()to see all options. Defaults to"PSNB"(Public Sector Net Borrowing in £ billion).- refresh
Logical. If
TRUE, re-download even if a cached copy exists. Defaults toFALSE.
Value
An obr_tbl with the standard v0.4.0 schema plus a
forecast_date column (so each row identifies one fiscal-year value at
one fiscal event):
- forecast_date
When the forecast was published, e.g.
"March 2024"- period
Fiscal year being forecast, e.g.
"2024-25"- period_type
Always
"fiscal_year"- series
Series name as supplied (character)
- metric_type
One of
"level","pct","yoy_pct", set per series. CPI / GDP / real_GDP are"yoy_pct"(rates of change); PSNB / receipts / expenditure are"level"; the_pctvariants and PSND are"pct"(% of GDP).- value
Numeric forecast value in the unit described by
unit- unit
"gbp_bn"for level series,"pct"for percentage series
Details
This is useful for visualising how OBR forecasts have evolved over time, and for comparing forecasts against outturns. The vintage of the underlying database is recorded in the returned object's provenance.
Examples
# \donttest{
op <- options(obr.cache_dir = tempdir())
get_forecasts("PSNB")
#> ℹ Downloading historical_forecasts.xlsx from OBR...
#> ✔ Saved to cache.
#> # obr_tbl: 553 rows x 7 cols
#> # Source: OBR Historical Official Forecasts Database, March 2025
#> # URL: https://obr.uk/download/historical-official-forecasts-database-march-2025/
#> # Retrieved: 2026-05-07 21:08:44 UTC
#> # File MD5: 4312a0cf5075
#> # Package: obr 0.5.0
#>
#> forecast_date period period_type series metric_type value unit
#> 1 April 1970 1970-71 fiscal_year PSNB level -0.2 gbp_bn
#> 2 March 1971 1970-71 fiscal_year PSNB level 0.6 gbp_bn
#> 3 March 1971 1971-72 fiscal_year PSNB level 1.2 gbp_bn
#> 4 March 1972 1971-72 fiscal_year PSNB level 1.3 gbp_bn
#> 5 March 1972 1972-73 fiscal_year PSNB level 3.4 gbp_bn
#> 6 March 1973 1972-73 fiscal_year PSNB level 2.9 gbp_bn
#> 7 March 1973 1973-74 fiscal_year PSNB level 4.4 gbp_bn
#> 8 March 1974 1973-74 fiscal_year PSNB level 4.3 gbp_bn
#> 9 March 1974 1974-75 fiscal_year PSNB level 2.7 gbp_bn
#> 10 April 1975 1974-75 fiscal_year PSNB level 7.6 gbp_bn
#> # ... with 543 more rows
psnb <- get_forecasts("PSNB")
#> ℹ Loading from cache. Use `refresh = TRUE` to re-download.
psnb[psnb$period == "2024-25", ]
#> # obr_tbl: 13 rows x 7 cols
#> # Source: OBR Historical Official Forecasts Database, March 2025
#> # URL: https://obr.uk/download/historical-official-forecasts-database-march-2025/
#> # Retrieved: 2026-05-07 21:08:44 UTC
#> # File MD5: 4312a0cf5075
#> # Package: obr 0.5.0
#>
#> forecast_date period period_type series metric_type value unit
#> 499 March 2020 2024-25 fiscal_year PSNB level 57.92369 gbp_bn
#> 500 November 2020 2024-25 fiscal_year PSNB level 99.57407 gbp_bn
#> 501 March 2021 2024-25 fiscal_year PSNB level 74.43927 gbp_bn
#> 502 October 2021 2024-25 fiscal_year PSNB level 46.32206 gbp_bn
#> 503 March 2022 2024-25 fiscal_year PSNB level 36.52329 gbp_bn
#> 504 November 2022 2024-25 fiscal_year PSNB level 84.32658 gbp_bn
#> 505 March 2023 2024-25 fiscal_year PSNB level 85.39792 gbp_bn
#> 506 November 2023 2024-25 fiscal_year PSNB level 84.57033 gbp_bn
#> 507 March 2024 2024-25 fiscal_year PSNB level 87.22658 gbp_bn
#> 508 October 2024 2024-25 fiscal_year PSNB level 127.49186 gbp_bn
#> # ... with 3 more rows
options(op)
# }